Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Marchand wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 40.3% vs Tavares 54.4% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchand 60.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.4%
Neutral zone
Marchand 51.5%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Marchand
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Marchand
Tavares
Last 10: Marchand 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Marchand
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Marchand
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (473)
54.0% (16,108)
-17.4%
Power Play
49.3% (146)
56.5% (4,283)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (66)
50.6% (620)
-18.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Marchand is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Marchand shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Marchand
Tavares
Home
39.9% (363)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
37.6% (322)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Marchand
Tavares
P1
41.3%
55.0%
P2
35.0%
54.1%
P3
39.2%
54.1%
OT
37.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
37.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 02:49 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2019 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 14:18 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |