Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Marchand wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 40.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchand 85.5%
Defensive zone
Marchand 62.7%
Neutral zone
Marchand 88.5%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Marchand
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Marchand
O'Reilly
Last 10: Marchand 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchand
2
0
Marchand
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
9
Marchand
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (473)
56.2% (15,260)
-19.6%
Power Play
49.3% (146)
58.8% (3,445)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (66)
51.4% (2,811)
-19.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchand is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Marchand shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Marchand
O'Reilly
Home
39.9% (363)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
37.6% (322)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Marchand
O'Reilly
P1
41.3%
55.6%
P2
35.0%
57.0%
P3
39.2%
55.1%
OT
37.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
37.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 1 | 15:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 3 | 08:50 | Neutral | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 26, 2015 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |