Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 45.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 72.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.7%
Neutral zone
Marchand 56.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Marchand
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
29.7% (37)
56.1% (690)
-26.4%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
64.6% (96)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
45.9% (109)
-20.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchand is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Marchand shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Marchand
O'Reilly
Home
43.3% (30)
58.3% (408)
Away
33.3% (27)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Marchand
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
57.7%
P2
45.0%
54.8%
P3
13.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
25.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |