Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 47.7% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 61.5%
Defensive zone
Marchand 52.4%
Neutral zone
Marchand 54.3%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Marchand
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (36)
55.0% (1,084)
-10.6%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
56.8% (303)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
40.3% (149)
+2.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchand is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (22).
Marchand shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Marchand
O'Reilly
Home
46.2% (26)
54.8% (759)
Away
41.4% (29)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Marchand
O'Reilly
P1
44.8%
55.3%
P2
30.8%
51.9%
P3
55.6%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
30.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
43.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |