Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +22.7% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 25.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 45.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-22.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 68.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.9%
Neutral zone
Marchand 54.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Marchand
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marchand
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
31.0% (29)
56.6% (1,064)
-25.6%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
60.4% (260)
-20.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
54.0% (261)
-4.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchand is 25.0% vs left-shot opponents (32).
Marchand shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Marchand
O'Reilly
Home
42.1% (19)
54.9% (801)
Away
27.3% (22)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Marchand
O'Reilly
P1
31.6%
58.0%
P2
28.6%
56.7%
P3
50.0%
55.4%
Final 5 min
16.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
34.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |