Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.3%). Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Tkachuk 51.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 88.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 55.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
Last 5: Lowry 4-1 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
51.0% (194)
+2.7%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
51.7% (151)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
50.0% (2)
-7.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
53.0% (583)
50.0% (140)
Away
50.6% (605)
52.2% (207)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
52.1%
54.3%
P2
51.8%
50.0%
P3
52.3%
49.5%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.9%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |