Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Larkin 52.4% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 51.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tkachuk
Larkin
Last 5: Tkachuk 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Tkachuk
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
51.7% (878)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
58.5% (246)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.2% (166)
+51.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
50.4% (121)
52.4% (647)
Away
67.3% (113)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
57.1%
52.2%
P2
60.0%
53.1%
P3
58.3%
51.7%
OT
66.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |