Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Larkin 54.1% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 90.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 81.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 60.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tkachuk
Larkin
Last 6: Tkachuk 2-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Tkachuk
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Tkachuk
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
53.6% (886)
-6.1%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
59.3% (317)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
48.7% (152)
-36.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +36.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
49.9% (389)
56.6% (700)
Away
46.8% (376)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
44.4%
55.4%
P2
51.8%
54.7%
P3
47.8%
52.7%
OT
57.1%
59.1%
Final 5 min
44.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |