Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Larkin 54.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 76.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 86.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Tkachuk
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
52.6% (1,117)
-1.6%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
60.7% (305)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
55.9% (177)
-5.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
50.0% (140)
54.7% (783)
Away
52.2% (207)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
54.3%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
56.1%
P3
49.5%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |