Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 88.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
Tkachuk
Larkin
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
11
1
Tkachuk
Larkin
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
9
Tkachuk
Larkin
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Tkachuk
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
51.7% (9,019)
-2.7%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
58.5% (2,125)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
50.2% (1,122)
-5.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
50.7% (1,428)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
49.4%
52.7%
P2
51.3%
53.1%
P3
49.3%
52.1%
OT
57.1%
58.4%
Final 5 min
46.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |