Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 50.6%). Look for Jankowski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Jankowski 50.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 81.4%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 86.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 50.8%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Tkachuk
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tkachuk
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Jankowski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
4
Tkachuk
Jankowski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
51.3% (347)
-0.3%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
72.7% (11)
-21.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.0% (75)
+6.0%
On power play, Jankowski has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Jankowski is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Jankowski
Home
50.0% (140)
46.8% (188)
Away
52.2% (207)
53.5% (245)
By Period
Tkachuk
Jankowski
P1
54.3%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
49.3%
P3
49.5%
50.9%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |