Brady Tkachuk vs Nathan MacKinnon
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 78.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Last 7: Tkachuk 6-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
0
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
44.7% (1,053)
+2.8%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
36.8% (95)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
65.0% (20)
-52.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +52.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Home
49.9% (389)
49.4% (553)
Away
46.8% (376)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
P1
44.4%
45.3%
P2
51.8%
42.7%
P3
47.8%
45.1%
OT
57.1%
46.2%
Final 5 min
44.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |