Brady Tkachuk vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 78.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 82.9%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
45.5% (1,190)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
56.4% (94)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
40.0% (30)
-40.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Home
56.0% (175)
47.8% (670)
Away
49.8% (205)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
P1
55.0%
45.3%
P2
51.9%
48.5%
P3
47.3%
45.0%
OT
77.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |