Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.0%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Roy 48.3% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 94.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 87.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 50.9%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Tkachuk
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Tkachuk
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
48.3% (633)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
52.1% (48)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
43.7% (87)
-31.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Roy
Home
49.9% (389)
50.8% (376)
Away
46.8% (376)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Tkachuk
Roy
P1
44.4%
53.8%
P2
51.8%
43.5%
P3
47.8%
46.4%
OT
57.1%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 15:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:52 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |