Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Cates 45.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 83.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 91.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 66.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 91.1%
8.9%
91.1%
Tkachuk
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tkachuk
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Tkachuk
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
46.7% (912)
+4.3%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
33.9% (56)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
35.0% (137)
+15.0%
On power play, Tkachuk has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Cates
Home
50.0% (140)
46.1% (521)
Away
52.2% (207)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Tkachuk
Cates
P1
54.3%
48.0%
P2
50.0%
42.3%
P3
49.5%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |