Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 97.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 58.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 78.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Tkachuk
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tkachuk
Cates
Last 8: Tkachuk 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
1
Tkachuk
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
44.1% (2,742)
+4.9%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
43.0% (242)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
34.9% (373)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Cates
Home
50.7% (1,428)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Tkachuk
Cates
P1
49.4%
44.5%
P2
51.3%
43.5%
P3
49.3%
41.2%
OT
57.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |