Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Thomas 52.7% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 82.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 52.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Tkachuk
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tkachuk
Thomas
Last 8: Tkachuk 3-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Tkachuk
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Tkachuk
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
53.6% (924)
-6.1%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
55.2% (181)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
44.0% (116)
-31.5%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thomas
Home
49.9% (389)
53.6% (606)
Away
46.8% (376)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thomas
P1
44.4%
48.2%
P2
51.8%
55.3%
P3
47.8%
55.2%
OT
57.1%
47.1%
Final 5 min
44.3%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:43 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:56 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |