Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 53.1%). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Thomas 52.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 80.1%
Defensive zone
Thomas 91.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 50.4%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Tkachuk
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tkachuk
Thomas
Last 8: Tkachuk 4-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Thomas
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Tkachuk
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tkachuk
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
53.2% (1,166)
-5.3%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
56.9% (262)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
48.4% (221)
-48.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +48.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thomas
Home
56.0% (175)
51.6% (830)
Away
49.8% (205)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thomas
P1
55.0%
52.7%
P2
51.9%
55.6%
P3
47.3%
50.6%
OT
77.8%
61.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |