Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 53.1%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Johansen 52.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 81.9%
Defensive zone
Johansen 88.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Tkachuk
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Johansen
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Tkachuk
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
51.9% (597)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
57.9% (133)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
54.3% (81)
-54.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +54.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Johansen
Home
56.0% (175)
55.8% (387)
Away
49.8% (205)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Tkachuk
Johansen
P1
55.0%
50.0%
P2
51.9%
56.2%
P3
47.3%
52.6%
OT
77.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |