Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Johansen 53.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.2%
Defensive zone
Johansen 74.2%
Neutral zone
Johansen 60.9%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Tkachuk
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Tkachuk
Johansen
Last 9: Tkachuk 5-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
0
Tkachuk
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
4
Tkachuk
Johansen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
53.1% (11,017)
-4.1%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
56.2% (2,163)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
50.5% (978)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Johansen
Home
50.7% (1,428)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Tkachuk
Johansen
P1
49.4%
53.2%
P2
51.3%
53.9%
P3
49.3%
52.8%
OT
57.1%
58.2%
Final 5 min
46.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 19:29 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |