Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.7% vs McLeod 47.8% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 71.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 95.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 70.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Tkachuk
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tkachuk
McLeod
Last 5: Tkachuk 1-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Tkachuk
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Tkachuk
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (185)
49.0% (896)
+6.1%
Power Play
61.0% (118)
47.5% (99)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.6% (289)
+56.4%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (219).
Tkachuk shoots left. McLeod is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McLeod
Home
53.4% (161)
48.3% (658)
Away
62.2% (143)
47.0% (626)
By Period
Tkachuk
McLeod
P1
58.4%
52.1%
P2
57.8%
44.6%
P3
57.1%
46.9%
OT
50.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
55.7%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
58.0%▬
58.0%
57.6%
McLeod
54.0%▲
48.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | OT | 00:07 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |