Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs McLeod 52.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 91.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 58.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Tkachuk
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Tkachuk
McLeod
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
2
Tkachuk
McLeod
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
Tkachuk
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
52.9% (904)
-1.9%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
57.6% (59)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
49.0% (241)
+1.0%
On power play, McLeod has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McLeod
Home
50.0% (140)
51.8% (612)
Away
52.2% (207)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Tkachuk
McLeod
P1
54.3%
55.4%
P2
50.0%
50.8%
P3
49.5%
51.6%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
McLeod
50.0%▬
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:30 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |