Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 53.8% vs McLeod 46.6% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 61.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 93.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 67.9%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 80.8%
19.2%
80.8%
Tkachuk
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tkachuk
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Tkachuk
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (89)
48.2% (587)
+11.4%
Power Play
50.9% (57)
49.3% (67)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
39.5% (210)
+60.5%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +60.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (99).
Tkachuk shoots left. McLeod is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McLeod
Home
52.9% (87)
47.3% (450)
Away
61.7% (60)
44.9% (414)
By Period
Tkachuk
McLeod
P1
61.0%
52.6%
P2
59.5%
43.3%
P3
52.4%
43.6%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
56.5%
McLeod
50.0%▬
50.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | OT | 00:07 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |