Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Reinhart 50.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.6%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 80.8%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 57.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Last 9: Tkachuk 6-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Reinhart
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
3
Tkachuk
Reinhart
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
49.4% (259)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
54.4% (136)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
47.9% (71)
-35.4%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Reinhart is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Home
49.9% (389)
54.9% (235)
Away
46.8% (376)
46.3% (231)
By Period
Tkachuk
Reinhart
P1
44.4%
52.3%
P2
51.8%
50.0%
P3
47.8%
50.0%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:13 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |