Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 58.0%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 95.4%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 69.5%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Last 9: Tkachuk 3-6 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
1
Tkachuk
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
5
Tkachuk
Reinhart
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
44.6% (345)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
43.3% (97)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
43.2% (88)
-43.2%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Reinhart
Home
56.0% (175)
47.9% (267)
Away
49.8% (205)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Tkachuk
Reinhart
P1
55.0%
45.6%
P2
51.9%
42.0%
P3
47.3%
45.4%
OT
77.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 02:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |