Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Thompson 44.0% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 76.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 93.1%
Neutral zone
Thompson 58.4%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 79.2%
20.8%
79.2%
Tkachuk
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Thompson
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Tkachuk
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
44.6% (709)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
41.5% (53)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
35.1% (97)
-35.1%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thompson
Home
56.0% (175)
45.5% (426)
Away
49.8% (205)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thompson
P1
55.0%
48.5%
P2
51.9%
43.8%
P3
47.3%
38.1%
OT
77.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |