Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.5% vs 57.8%). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Hertl 57.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 62.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
58.1% (823)
-1.3%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
56.2% (265)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
50.4% (121)
59.7% (561)
Away
67.3% (113)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
57.1%
51.6%
P2
60.0%
63.8%
P3
58.3%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |