Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 63.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 94.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
57.0% (718)
-9.1%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
64.9% (188)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.2% (77)
-44.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
56.0% (175)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.8% (205)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
55.0%
56.3%
P2
51.9%
55.4%
P3
47.3%
60.5%
OT
77.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |