Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 70.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.1%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
54.1% (717)
-3.1%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
61.9% (210)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
58.1% (31)
-8.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
50.0% (140)
58.1% (492)
Away
52.2% (207)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
54.3%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
49.5%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |