Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Hertl 54.5% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 52.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 95.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
Last 8: Tkachuk 7-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
54.1% (1,117)
-6.6%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
59.8% (296)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
34.4% (32)
-21.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
49.9% (389)
54.3% (709)
Away
46.8% (376)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
44.4%
51.6%
P2
51.8%
53.6%
P3
47.8%
58.6%
OT
57.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |