Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 84.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 59.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 84.3%
15.7%
84.3%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Tkachuk
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Tkachuk
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
51.6% (1,084)
-6.2%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
61.0% (246)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
44.1% (136)
+55.9%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +55.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
51.1% (233)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.0% (202)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
42.9%
55.4%
P2
52.2%
54.8%
P3
53.7%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |