Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Saad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Saad 48.0% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 84.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 89.4%
10.6%
89.4%
Saad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Saad
O'Reilly
Last 5: Saad 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Saad
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Saad
3
0
Saad
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Saad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (91)
60.3% (1,517)
-15.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
61.5% (387)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
55.0% (220)
-7.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Saad is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Saad shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Saad
O'Reilly
Home
47.1% (51)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
45.7% (70)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Saad
O'Reilly
P1
43.9%
56.8%
P2
51.2%
64.6%
P3
43.2%
58.5%
Final 5 min
51.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Saad
28.0%▼
38.0%
46.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Brandon Saad |
| Dec 8, 2017 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |