Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Saad on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Saad wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Saad 42.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Saad 71.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Saad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Saad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Saad 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Saad
4
1
Saad
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
Saad
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Saad
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Saad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (532)
56.2% (15,260)
-15.6%
Power Play
49.6% (113)
58.8% (3,445)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (68)
51.4% (2,811)
-13.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Saad is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (435).
Saad shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Saad
O'Reilly
Home
42.5% (367)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
41.0% (346)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Saad
O'Reilly
P1
41.7%
55.6%
P2
41.2%
57.0%
P3
43.1%
55.1%
OT
36.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
38.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Saad
28.0%▼
38.0%
41.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 02:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Brandon Saad |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Brandon Saad |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Brandon Saad |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Brandon Saad |
| Dec 8, 2017 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |