Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.1% vs McDavid 47.9% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 54.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Point
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Point
McDavid
Last 5: Point 2-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Point
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Point
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (435)
47.5% (650)
-1.3%
Power Play
49.5% (105)
48.6% (72)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
46.5% (43)
-26.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Point is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Point shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Point
McDavid
Home
46.9% (243)
50.2% (400)
Away
46.4% (302)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Point
McDavid
P1
46.2%
47.5%
P2
45.9%
48.6%
P3
48.9%
46.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
46.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brayden Point |