Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.7% vs 44.9%). Point wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 46.2% vs Mercer 46.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 50.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.5%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Point
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Point
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Point
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (582)
43.6% (241)
+2.3%
Power Play
45.6% (57)
50.0% (14)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
70.0% (10)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Point is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Point shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Point
Mercer
Home
45.8% (286)
41.7% (120)
Away
45.5% (358)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Point
Mercer
P1
45.9%
44.6%
P2
48.8%
45.4%
P3
40.6%
45.2%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
45.7%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |