Scouting Report
Brayden Point holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.1% vs Mercer 41.8% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 88.4%
Defensive zone
Point 66.0%
Neutral zone
Point 77.9%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 80.7%
80.7%
19.3%
Point
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Point
Mercer
Last 7: Point 5-2 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
0
Point
Mercer
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Point
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Point
2
1
Point
Mercer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (435)
38.8% (263)
+7.4%
Power Play
49.5% (105)
35.3% (17)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
50.0% (10)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Point is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Point shoots right. Mercer is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
Point
Mercer
Home
46.9% (243)
34.7% (144)
Away
46.4% (302)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Point
Mercer
P1
46.2%
32.7%
P2
45.9%
42.7%
P3
48.9%
42.2%
Final 5 min
46.6%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
46.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brayden Point |