Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Point wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.1% vs Lorentz 50.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 70.2%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 75.2%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 58.7%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Point
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Point
Lorentz
Last 5: Point 4-1 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
4
0
Point
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Point
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (435)
52.2% (67)
-6.0%
Power Play
49.5% (105)
50.0% (2)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
42.9% (21)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Point is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Point shoots right. Lorentz is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (35).
Home / Away
Point
Lorentz
Home
46.9% (243)
55.4% (65)
Away
46.4% (302)
36.0% (25)
By Period
Point
Lorentz
P1
46.2%
59.3%
P2
45.9%
47.1%
P3
48.9%
44.8%
Final 5 min
46.6%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
46.6%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Brayden Point |