Scouting Report
Brayden Schenn holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Nelson 50.6% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 50.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schenn
Nelson
Last 6: Schenn 2-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Schenn
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Schenn
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (613)
50.7% (879)
+0.5%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
58.6% (162)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (22)
43.4% (198)
+29.3%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
54.0% (367)
52.3% (621)
Away
53.3% (375)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
48.6%
48.4%
P2
52.0%
53.5%
P3
59.0%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |