Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.1%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 52.1% vs Nelson 51.9% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Schenn 59.4%
Defensive zone
Schenn 58.8%
Neutral zone
Schenn 59.7%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Schenn
Nelson
Last 10: Schenn 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
4
Schenn
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
5
Schenn
Nelson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
3
Schenn
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (962)
51.3% (1,002)
+0.9%
Power Play
51.2% (166)
58.7% (126)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (54)
51.9% (81)
+5.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (741).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
51.1% (575)
52.5% (590)
Away
53.4% (607)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
51.4%
50.5%
P2
52.7%
54.4%
P3
52.7%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
51.6%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
52.3%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 17, 2024 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:56 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |