Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.1% vs 49.4%). Schenn wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 49.2% vs Nelson 49.4% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 55.4%
Defensive zone
Schenn 74.9%
Neutral zone
Schenn 62.2%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Schenn
Nelson
Last 5: Schenn 0-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Schenn
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Schenn
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Schenn
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (542)
49.9% (840)
-1.2%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
52.8% (89)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (20)
28.6% (35)
+11.4%
On power play, Schenn has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
49.0% (286)
49.8% (458)
Away
49.1% (293)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
47.7%
50.1%
P2
48.7%
45.4%
P3
51.4%
52.7%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.4%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
49.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |