Scouting Report
Brayden Schenn holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs McDavid 47.9% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 61.5%
Defensive zone
Schenn 74.6%
Neutral zone
Schenn 77.5%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Schenn
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Schenn
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Schenn
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (613)
47.5% (650)
+3.7%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
48.6% (72)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (22)
46.5% (43)
+26.2%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Schenn is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Schenn shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Schenn
McDavid
Home
54.0% (367)
50.2% (400)
Away
53.3% (375)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Schenn
McDavid
P1
48.6%
47.5%
P2
52.0%
48.6%
P3
59.0%
46.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |