Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.5% vs 46.6%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schenn wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 47.8% vs McDavid 47.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.8%
Neutral zone
Schenn 53.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Schenn
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schenn
McDavid
Last 6: Schenn 2-4 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Schenn
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Schenn
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (609)
46.9% (862)
-0.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
42.1% (38)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (31)
44.4% (18)
+7.2%
On power play, Schenn has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Schenn is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Schenn shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Schenn
McDavid
Home
45.7% (361)
47.9% (478)
Away
49.5% (319)
45.2% (440)
By Period
Schenn
McDavid
P1
54.6%
45.9%
P2
41.0%
47.7%
P3
46.8%
46.6%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
47.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |