Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 49.4% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Defensive zone
Schenn 67.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.4%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Schenn
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Schenn
O'Reilly
Last 8: Schenn 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
3
1
Schenn
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Schenn
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (729)
55.0% (1,084)
-7.4%
Power Play
60.3% (126)
56.8% (303)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
40.3% (149)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schenn is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (581).
Schenn shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Schenn
O'Reilly
Home
55.6% (453)
54.8% (759)
Away
43.3% (467)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Schenn
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
55.3%
P2
50.3%
51.9%
P3
50.8%
54.2%
OT
22.2%
64.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |