Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 80.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Schenn
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Schenn
O'Reilly
Last 10: Schenn 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
4
1
Schenn
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
3
2
Schenn
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (962)
56.2% (983)
-4.0%
Power Play
51.2% (166)
55.5% (254)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (54)
52.0% (102)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schenn is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (741).
Schenn shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Schenn
O'Reilly
Home
51.1% (575)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.4% (607)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Schenn
O'Reilly
P1
51.4%
54.5%
P2
52.7%
55.5%
P3
52.7%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:19 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:01 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |