Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaunce wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.3%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 83.7%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 52.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Gaunce
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Gaunce
Hertl
Last 5: Gaunce 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Gaunce
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
58.1% (823)
+0.0%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
56.2% (265)
-56.2%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
62.9% (35)
-10.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaunce is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Gaunce shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Hertl
Home
54.8% (93)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.1% (88)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Gaunce
Hertl
P1
62.3%
51.6%
P2
48.1%
63.8%
P3
59.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
51.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |