Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.1% vs 45.2%). Howden wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 46.1% vs Nelson 45.8% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.5%
Defensive zone
Howden 65.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Howden
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Howden
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (330)
46.1% (735)
+1.2%
Power Play
22.2% (9)
34.5% (29)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
30.4% (23)
-4.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
44.3% (176)
48.7% (419)
Away
45.8% (190)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
43.1%
44.6%
P2
43.1%
47.3%
P3
48.1%
43.0%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
34.0%▼
48.0%
45.1%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |