Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.6%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Nelson 50.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Howden 50.4%
Neutral zone
Howden 51.5%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Howden
Nelson
Last 6: Howden 3-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
0
Howden
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Howden
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Howden
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
50.7% (879)
-0.3%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
58.6% (162)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
43.4% (198)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Howden has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
47.7% (195)
52.3% (621)
Away
52.8% (233)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
51.1%
48.4%
P2
52.6%
53.5%
P3
48.8%
50.3%
OT
33.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |