Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.4% vs 41.8%). Boeser wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 45.9% vs Novak 43.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 54.2%
Defensive zone
Boeser 66.4%
Neutral zone
Boeser 62.9%
Result
Brock Boeser favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Boeser
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Boeser
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (105)
41.4% (379)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
46.9% (32)
+7.6%
On power play, Boeser has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Boeser is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Boeser shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Boeser
Novak
Home
40.0% (60)
42.6% (195)
Away
44.8% (58)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Boeser
Novak
P1
40.5%
42.4%
P2
50.0%
39.2%
P3
32.3%
44.7%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
34.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
39.0%
42.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Brock Boeser |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Brock Boeser |