Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Boeser wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 41.6% vs Novak 43.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 57.2%
Defensive zone
Novak 68.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Boeser
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Boeser
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
39.6% (442)
42.1% (1,539)
-2.5%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
51.9% (133)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On power play, Novak has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Boeser is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Boeser shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Boeser
Novak
Home
40.9% (242)
45.3% (814)
Away
38.9% (247)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Boeser
Novak
P1
37.2%
43.9%
P2
42.0%
42.8%
P3
40.0%
41.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
39.0%
39.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Brock Boeser |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Brock Boeser |