Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 47.6% vs Nelson 49.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.5%
Defensive zone
Howden 60.0%
Neutral zone
Howden 50.0%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Howden
Nelson
Last 8: Howden 4-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Howden
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Howden
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Howden
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (191)
48.5% (586)
+1.2%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
51.9% (81)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (48)
57.5% (40)
-22.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
42.8% (138)
55.0% (362)
Away
51.3% (115)
43.5% (345)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
47.9%
49.3%
P2
49.4%
53.6%
P3
43.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
46.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |